Bitcoin remains stalled just below the $120,000 mark, squeezed within a narrow band for more than ten days. The market’s prolonged pause comes as long-term holders (LTHs) begin distributing coins, raising fresh questions about the resilience of Bitcoin’s current rally.
Despite persistent attempts by bulls, BTC has failed to breach the key $120,000 resistance, amplifying analyst warnings of a possible correction. The coming days look crucial, with technical and on-chain signals pointing toward a spike in volatility.
Historic CDD Spike as Dormant Coins Move
Bitcoin’s Monthly Cumulative Days Destroyed (CDD) to Yearly CDD ratio has soared to a record 0.25. This metric, measuring how much dormant Bitcoin is suddenly moving, mirrors historical spikes seen at previous market tops and periods of large-scale distribution.
During the current $106,000-$118,000 range, analysts observe significant movement from long-inactive wallets. Such activity is rare and typically hints that seasoned holders are realizing profits or reallocating before the next big price move.
Did you know?
More than 80,000 Bitcoins dormant for over ten years moved for the first time in July 2025, one of the largest ‘old coin’ migrations in crypto history.
Long-Term Holders Begin Distributing
Top market observers note that rising CDD ratios frequently foreshadow distribution by long-term holders. Coins held for several years are now re-entering circulation, often signifying a sense of caution or tactical profit-taking among experienced participants.
Historically, similar spikes preceded major corrections or pivotal turning points, including the 2014 peak and 2019’s mid-cycle retracement. While not a definitive presage of downside, these moves warrant attention from traders and investors alike.
Technical Standoff Below $120K
On the charts, Bitcoin continues to trade in a compressed horizontal channel, constrained by $115,724 support and $122,077 resistance. The price hovers around $118,500, closely tracking the 50-period moving average, indicating ongoing indecision.
Meanwhile, overall market volume is declining. This shrinking activity reflects a lack of conviction from both bulls and bears, as the market waits to see which way the next breakout will tilt.
A close above $122,000 could unleash fresh bullish momentum, aiming for new highs. Conversely, a move below $115,700 could potentially trigger a further retracement, with the 100-period moving average near $109,800 as a potential target.
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Whale Transfers and Dormant Coin Surges
On-chain data shows that July 2025 recorded one of the largest dormant coin migrations on record. More than 80,000 BTC, held dormant for over a decade, moved as whale wallets transferred significant sums to exchanges. Such movements often indicate profit-taking, tactical hedging, or portfolio rebalancing among major holders.
These shifts historically mark short-term tops, pauses, or potential bear phases but also create entry opportunities for institutional and retail buyers, depending on overall market sentiment.
Institutional Demand: Rally Buffer or Mirage?
Steady ETF inflows and strong treasury demand continue to underpin Bitcoin's macro outlook, despite on-chain signs of distribution. Institutional investors continue absorbing supply, cushioning potential downturns.
Analysts caution that while LTH activity may cap immediate upside and increase volatility, the bull case will only break if institutional support fades simultaneously. For now, the interplay between seasoned sellers and fresh buyers is the key dynamic shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitcoin currently trades in a tight range between $115,000 and $120,000, maintaining this sideways congestion for over ten days. The monthly CDD to yearly CDD ratio has surged to a historic 0.25, indicating significant distribution activity from long-term holders.
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Despite an all-time high of $123,236 set recently, Bitcoin has been unable to break above this resistance level and remains locked below $120,000. Key support at approximately $115,724 has held steady for several sessions, while bulls continue to struggle to surpass the $122,077 resistance barrier.
Institutional demand remains robust, with continuous ETF inflows and strong treasury buying activity providing a crucial buffer. Additionally, whale wallets have moved over 80,000 dormant bitcoins in July 2025, marking one of the largest on-chain movements for the month and signaling profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing among major holders.
Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal juncture. If bulls reclaim momentum and break above resistance, new highs are back in play. If not, continued selling from seasoned wallets could trigger a deeper correction. The actions of both old holders and new buyers will set the stage for the rest of 2025.
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