Bitwise Asset Management has released a bullish forecast positioning bitcoin as the top-performing major asset class over the next ten years, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% along with a gradual decline in volatility.
This outlook reflects growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a "core" portfolio asset, fueled by the launch and approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on national account platforms and increasing requests from large allocators for long-term capital market assumptions.
What is Bitwise’s forecast for Bitcoin’s performance?
According to Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, bitcoin is expected to deliver superior returns compared to traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, supported by encouraging trends in volatility and correlations with other asset classes.
Bitwise characterizes Bitcoin’s correlations as "low" by conventional standards, typically ranging between −0.5 and 0.5, which enhances its appeal for diversification.
Did you know?
Nearly 7% of all bitcoin supply is now tied to onchain holdings linked to spot bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024.
How is institutional interest shifting Bitcoin’s role?
The firm notes a clear transition of Bitcoin from a fringe investment to a central portfolio asset, exemplified by significant inflows into spot ETFs and corporate treasury holdings exceeding $80 billion.
Public companies like Strategy have accumulated substantial bitcoin reserves, showcasing the use of capital markets in financing cryptocurrency purchases.
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What does declining volatility mean for Bitcoin investors?
Bitwise projects a decrease in bitcoin price volatility over the coming decade, alleviating one of the major concerns for traditional investors wary of crypto’s historic swings.
This trend toward stability may increase Bitcoin’s adoption as a store of value and an effective hedge within diversified portfolios.
Why are Bitcoin ETFs important for market maturity?
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marks a milestone in institutional access and credibility for the asset class.
Onchain data shows these ETFs now hold nearly 7% of the total bitcoin supply of 21 million coins, reflecting broad acceptance and signaling a maturation of the bitcoin market.
Bitwise’s forthcoming full Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report will detail these projections alongside comparisons to forecasts from major firms like JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
As Bitcoin solidifies its role in large portfolios, the asset class appears poised for a decade of strong growth and expanding institutional trust.
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