Can BRICS Withstand Trump’s Tariff Threat and High-Profile Absences?

The 2025 BRICS summit has been thrust into the global spotlight following Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping new tariffs targeting BRICS and allied nations. Trump’s move, which includes an immediate 10% tariff on all imports from BRICS members and select partner countries, is widely considered a direct challenge to the bloc’s growing economic influence.

BRICS leaders have sharply criticized the tariffs, which Trump justified as a measure to “protect American jobs and punish unfair trading practices.” Many view the action as an attempt to undermine the group’s efforts to build a multipolar global order and reduce reliance on Western-dominated trade systems. The timing of the announcement, just as the summit convenes in Rio, has injected a sense of urgency and defiance into the proceedings.

The Impact of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s Absence

This year’s summit is marked by the conspicuous absence of two of BRICS’ most influential leaders: China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. For the first time since assuming power, Xi has opted not to attend, citing an official “scheduling conflict.” However, analysts point to deeper causes, including China’s domestic economic pressures, ongoing trade tensions with the US, and a strategic recalibration of its international engagement. Premier Li Qiang is representing China in Xi’s stead.

Vladimir Putin’s absence is even more politically charged. The Russian president faces an active International Criminal Court arrest warrant related to alleged war crimes in Ukraine. With Brazil being a signatory to the Rome Statute, Putin’s presence in Rio would have triggered complex legal and diplomatic dilemmas. As a result, he is participating virtually, following the precedent set at last year’s summit in South Africa.

Did you know?
The BRICS bloc now represents nearly half the world’s population and about a quarter of global economic output, positioning itself as a formidable counterweight to the G7. Its expansion in 2025 marks the largest single-year growth in the group’s history.

Expanded Membership Tests Bloc Cohesion

The BRICS bloc, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded its ranks in 2025 to include Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. Several other nations, such as Belarus, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, and Vietnam, have joined as partners. While this expansion reflects BRICS’ ambition to represent the Global South, it also brings new challenges in aligning diverse economic and political interests.

Internal divisions have become more pronounced, particularly on issues such as responses to Western sanctions, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and the future direction of the bloc. The absence of Xi and Putin removes two pivotal voices from critical debates, raising questions about the group’s ability to present a united front in the face of external pressures like Trump’s tariffs.

Leadership Vacuums Threaten Strategic Direction

BRICS is currently facing a critical leadership vacuum due to the simultaneous absence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Both leaders have historically set the tone for the bloc’s strategic priorities and have been instrumental in driving initiatives aimed at countering Western dominance. Their absence has shifted the spotlight to other leaders, notably Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who must now navigate complex geopolitical terrain and internal disagreements.

Observers note that without the direct involvement of China and Russia’s top leaders, the summit’s ability to deliver substantive outcomes may be diminished. Trump's aggressive trade measures compound the challenge, necessitating a coordinated and decisive response from BRICS.

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Can BRICS Chart a Path Forward Amid Escalating Pressures

Despite these setbacks, BRICS members have signaled their determination to push ahead with plans for greater economic integration, alternative payment systems, and enhanced cooperation on technology and climate change. The group’s expanded membership and the urgency imposed by external threats could serve as catalysts for deeper collaboration and reform.

However, the absence of Xi and Putin, combined with the disruptive impact of new US tariffs, places the bloc at a critical juncture. The coming days will test BRICS’ ability to adapt, innovate, and assert its relevance in an increasingly polarized global landscape.

Strategic Outlook

As the 2025 BRICS summit unfolds in Rio, the bloc is facing two significant challenges: the escalation of Trump's tariffs and the absence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The decisions made in the coming days will shape not only the future of BRICS but also the broader trajectory of global economic governance. The world is watching to see if BRICS can transform adversity into opportunity and emerge as a more cohesive and influential force.