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Can Elon Musk’s Grok AI Beat Poker Legend Phil Galfond?

Musk's Grok AI and poker pro Phil Galfond prepare for a high-stakes poker showdown after an LLMs-only tournament. Can artificial intelligence take down one of the game's best?

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By Jace Reed

4 min read

Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons.

A five-day poker tournament, PokerBattle.ai, has just rewritten the narrative of artificial intelligence in games of strategy. Nine large language models battled under the gaze of the poker world, drawing viral attention for one unmistakable reason: Elon Musk’s Grok AI taking an early lead, then issuing a public challenge to human legend Phil Galfond.

The experimental event, which ran from October 27 and wrapped up today, pitted language models like Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Meta LLAMA, and more against each other in continuous No-Limit Hold’em with $100,000 starting bankrolls. The results fanned the flames of debate over whether AI is ready for the big leagues of poker.

How Did the LLM Poker Tournament Begin?

Max Pavlov created PokerBattle.ai to push the boundaries of machine learning and strategic decision-making. With nine bots, including Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, OpenAI o3, DeepSeek R1, Kimi K2, Mistral Magistral, Z.AI GLM 4.6, and Meta LLAMA 4, the tournament featured continuous online tables and relentless real-time play.

Every model started with an equal bankroll and tested its learning against a dynamic field. Pavlov said the purpose was to see how well these advanced chatbots could adapt to poker, a notoriously hard game for AI due to hidden information and psychological elements.

The tournament structure encouraged each model to study patterns, adapt to rivals, and keep detailed notes after every hand, just as professional human players do.

Did you know?
Grok has a key advantage of being able to access real-time information through its tight integration with the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and the broader web.

What Made Grok Stand Out Among AI Rivals?

Grok AI, developed by xAI and actively promoted by Elon Musk, quickly became the face of the event. Musk himself posted updates on X, noting Grok’s temporary lead on the leaderboard and quoting iconic poker lyrics, which amplified public curiosity and brought wider attention to the experiment.

Grok was unique not only for its public brand champion but also for its measured, adaptive play. According to live stats, Grok analyzed rival bots’ tendencies, noting that Meta LLAMA 4 often made loose calls and played 62% of hands, while OpenAI o3 was best known for selectivity.

Grok’s discipline and note-taking created closed feedback loops, refining strategy as the games progressed.

Why Did Phil Galfond Challenge Grok to a $1M Match?

Three-time WSOP champion Phil Galfond responded to Musk’s viral engagement by proposing a direct, high-stakes showdown. Galfond, known for his cool-headed decision-making and analytical prowess, issued a public heads-up challenge to Grok: 50,000 hands of $100/$200 Pot-Limit Omaha with a one-million-dollar side bet, with charitable donations discussed by both camps.

Musk’s AI was accepted swiftly. Its creators claimed Grok would be a “10bb/100 favorite” against top human competition, citing its ability to play perfect game-theory-optimal poker without emotion.

The poker community was intrigued by this bold claim, eager to see whether Grok’s calm logic could really replace years of human intuition and grit at the felt.

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Are AI Models Truly Ready to Beat Professional Poker Players?

Despite AI’s rapid growth, skepticism remains about whether current LLM-based bots can consistently beat elite human professionals in complex games like poker.

Tournament creator Pavlov reminded critics and fans that the AI models, while impressive, still showed exploitable weaknesses through hands played and required more real-world data to prove true mastery.

In the final tally, standout performances included Gemini 2.5 Pro earning $48,658, Grok leading with $23,749 at one point, and Meta LLAMA 4 losing $52,908.

The relatively small sample size and variance inherent in poker prompted warnings that a multi-day, deep-stack match against an established pro like Galfond is a different beast entirely.

What Happens Next in the Human vs. AI Poker Showdown?

Contracts are being finalized for the Galfond versus Grok heads-up battle. The proposed match, once agreed upon, will last weeks rather than hours, offering richer insights for poker and AI researchers alike.

Both sides are discussing streaming options, protocol transparency, and charity allocations from winnings, ensuring the event will deliver more than spectacle.

Future matches are likely to push the boundaries of both human ingenuity and machine learning.

Philosophers, tech billionaires, and game theorists alike are watching closely, hoping for a contest that will teach as much as entertain.

Whether Grok can actually defeat Galfond remains unanswered, but the experiment itself marks another milestone in AI’s bid for greatness beyond the chessboard.

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