Can Israel Neutralize Iran's Nuclear Threat Alone?

Israel’s air campaign, launched on June 12, 2025, has showcased its military prowess, with over 200 fighter jets striking more than 100 targets across Iran, including the Natanz nuclear facility. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the aboveground fuel enrichment facility at Natanz was destroyed, but the underground centrifuges might remain intact due to power disruptions. Israel’s Mossad smuggled drones and precision weapons into Iran, neutralizing air defenses and achieving “full aerial superiority,” according to Israeli military officials.

This dominance allowed strikes on military command and ballistic missile sites, killing key figures like Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri and IRGC commander Hossein Salami. Yet, Iran’s deeply buried Fordow facility, protected by mountains, remains largely unscathed, highlighting the limits of airstrikes against hardened targets.

Will Iran’s Nuclear Expertise Survive the Onslaught?

Israel’s strikes killed at least 14 nuclear scientists, including nine named by the Israeli military as critical to Iran’s weapons program. Western experts warn that Iran’s “irreversible knowledge gain” means losing scientists slows but doesn’t stop progress. Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, enough for nine nuclear weapons if further refined, remains a threat. The IAEA reported Iran’s violation of non-proliferation obligations, fueling Israel’s urgency.

However, rebuilding expertise is faster than infrastructure, and Iran’s dispersed nuclear sites complicate complete elimination. The Isfahan facility, damaged but not destroyed, continues uranium conversion, essential for enrichment. Israel’s targeted assassinations aim to disrupt, but Iran’s scientific resilience may outlast the campaign.

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Can Israel Sustain a Prolonged Campaign?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to intensify Israel's operation, dubbed "Rising Lion," over a weeks-long period. Satellite imagery shows damage to Natanz’s electrical infrastructure, potentially crippling centrifuges, but Fordow’s underground design requires heavier munitions, like U.S. bunker-busting bombs, which Israel lacks.

Sustaining operations over Iran’s vast territory strains Israel’s resources, especially without regional allies like Saudi Arabia, who oppose open support. Iran’s retaliation, including 400 missiles since June 12, has killed 24 Israeli civilians, testing Israel’s resolve. Analysts suggest Israel’s campaign may last two weeks, but without U.S. involvement, destroying all nuclear sites is unlikely.

Iran’s Retaliation Threatens Regional Stability

Iran’s missile barrages, although largely intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome with U.S. assistance, struck civilian areas such as Tel Aviv, resulting in 24 deaths and hundreds of injuries. Iran’s proxies, like Yemen’s Houthis, pledge further attacks, potentially disrupting Red Sea shipping.

The IAEA noted no radiological leaks, but civilian deaths-224 in Iran, per official counts-fuel public anger, possibly strengthening Iran’s resolve to pursue a nuclear deterrent.

Iran’s suspension of nuclear talks in Oman signals defiance, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of “severe punishment.” Israel’s strikes weaken Iran’s military, but they may galvanize its nuclear ambitions.

Did you know?
In 1981, Israel’s Operation Opera destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in a single airstrike, delaying Iraq’s nuclear ambitions by years. Unlike Iran’s dispersed and hardened facilities, Osirak was a single, above-ground target, highlighting the complexity of Israel’s current challenge.

Israel’s Strategy Hinges on U.S. Support

Israel’s campaign aims to force Iran into negotiations or incapacitate its nuclear program, but experts argue airstrikes alone won’t suffice. The U.S. has intercepted Iranian missiles but refrained from offensive strikes, with President Trump stating, “We are not involved in strikes against Iran.”

Israeli officials push for U.S. bunker-busting bombs to target Fordow, but Trump’s reluctance and domestic opposition from Senate Democrats, who demand congressional approval for war, complicate involvement. Without U.S. firepower, Israel’s ability to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains limited, risking a prolonged conflict with uncertain outcomes.

What Lies Ahead for the Israel-Iran Nuclear Conflict?

Israel’s airstrikes have dealt significant blows to Iran’s military leadership and nuclear infrastructure, but the survival of underground facilities like Fordow and Iran’s scientific expertise suggest the threat persists. Iran’s retaliatory strikes and proxy threats risk escalating the conflict, while diplomatic efforts falter.

Israel faces a challenging task in neutralizing Iran's nuclear capabilities without the support of the United States. Will Israel’s campaign force Iran to negotiate, or will it ignite a broader regional war?