Can Profit-Taking by XRP’s Biggest Earners Trigger a Market Crash?

XRP’s price, trading at $2.14 as of June 21, 2025, has surged over 300% since November 2024, when it was below $0.50, per CoinMarketCap data. Early investors, particularly those holding for 6 to 12 months, are realizing profits at a rate of $68.8 million per day, according to Glassnode.

This wave of profit-taking mirrors patterns before XRP’s 2017 peak, when similar behavior preceded a 90% crash. The current distribution signals caution, as high-margin holders capitalize on recent gains.

The scale of these sell-offs, reported by Cointelegraph on June 21, threatens market stability, especially with newer holders nearing breakeven points.

How Does Market Structure Amplify Crash Risks?

Over 70% of XRP’s realized market capitalization, which tracks token value based on their last transaction price, has accumulated since late 2024, per Glassnode. This top-heavy structure, dominated by newer investors, is prone to sharp sell-offs during volatility.

In 2017, a similar concentration led to a prolonged downturn after profit-taking peaked. Cointelegraph notes that XRP’s current market resembles that cycle top, with newer holders’ average buy price at $2.28, close to the current $2.14 price.

If selling pressure persists, XRP could drop 35% to the $1.35 to $1.60 range, potentially triggering panic sales and a broader market correction.

Did you know?
In December 2017, XRP’s price soared to $3.84 before crashing 95% over the next year, driven by profit-taking similar to the $68.5 million daily sell-offs observed in June 2025.

Can Regulatory Catalysts Offset Selling Pressure?

Positive developments, like Canada’s launch of three XRP ETFs on June 18, 2025, reported by BeInCrypto, have bolstered XRP’s appeal. Speculation around a U.S. spot XRP ETF, with a 90% approval chance by late 2025 per Polymarket, could drive demand.

Ripple’s $50-million SEC settlement in April 2025, noted by Finance Magnates, removed legal overhangs, supporting XRP’s rally. However, these catalysts may not counterbalance the $68.5 million daily sell-offs if investor sentiment sours.

The interplay between regulatory wins and profit-taking will determine whether XRP stabilizes or faces a crash.

What Technical Indicators Signal a Potential Crash?

XRP’s daily chart shows a bearish descending triangle, with a downside target of $1.30, aligning with the $1.35 breakeven price for 6-to-12-month holders, per TradingView. The Spent Output Profit Ratio for 3-to-6-month holders has fallen, indicating sales at minimal profit, per Glassnode.

A break below the $2.10 support could accelerate declines toward $1.60 or lower, as warned by Cointelegraph. Conversely, a bounce from the 50-week exponential moving average near $1.76 could invalidate the bearish setup, per CoinDesk.

These technical signals underscore the precarious balance between profit-taking and market resilience.

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Profit-Taking Threatens XRP Market Stability

The $68.5 million daily profit realization by XRP’s early investors creates a fragile market environment, with technical and on-chain metrics pointing to a potential 35% decline. While regulatory advancements offer hope, the top-heavy market structure amplifies crash risks.

XRP’s fate hinges on whether buying pressure can absorb sell-offs or if panic sales will dominate. The broader crypto market, influenced by Bitcoin’s $108,600 price on June 21, 2025, will also shape XRP’s trajectory.

This scenario serves as a cautionary tale for investors navigating high-profit crypto cycles.

Path Forward

XRP’s $68.5 million daily profit-taking by early investors, coupled with a top-heavy market, threatens a 35% price drop to $1.35 to $1.60. While ETF approvals and Ripple’s legal clarity provide bullish catalysts, technical indicators warn of vulnerability. Will XRP’s market withstand this selling pressure, or will it trigger a broader crypto correction?