Could Modi’s China Visit Reset India-China Relations?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to China, from August 31 to September 1, 2025, for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, could mark a turning point in relations between Asia’s two largest countries. This journey, the first since the deadly Galwan Valley clash in 2020, comes after years of tense diplomatic sparring and border stand-offs.

The timing against a backdrop of mounting US-India trade friction and recent troop disengagements suggests both governments are re-examining priorities. The question remains: Can this summit visit actually reset the broader India-China relationship?

Cautious Thaw After Years of Tension

Until recently, dialogue was frozen. The 2020 Galwan incident, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops, significantly impacted bilateral ties. High-level exchanges vanished, with trust shattered and military deployments escalating along the contested Line of Actual Control.

This year has seen meaningful overtures: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh traveled to China, meeting top Chinese leadership and participating in forums.

In October 2024, Modi and President Xi Jinping met face-to-face for the first time in five years at the BRICS Summit, paving the way for disengagement and renewed regional diplomacy.

Did you know?
After the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, India and China held 21 rounds of military commander-level talks before agreeing to a phased troop disengagement along key points of the Line of Actual Control.

External Pressures Drive Pragmatism

The growing rift with the United States spurred by President Trump’s aggressive tariff threats against India for Russian oil purchases has added urgency to India’s diplomatic agenda.

With external pressures intensifying, India may find advantage in stabilizing its long and turbulent relationship with China, both to diversify partnerships and to avoid strategic overextension.

Analysts note that as the world’s two most populous countries, India and China have powerful incentives for cooperation: trade, economic growth, and regional security all benefit from a reduction in friction.

Their engagement at the SCO Summit, which hosts leaders from over 20 nations, offers a multilateral cover for rebuilding trust without direct bilateral confrontation.

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Trust Deficit and Unfinished Business

Yet, skepticism abounds. India’s decision to withhold its endorsement from a recent SCO defense statement citing the omission of the 2025 Pahalgam attack exposes continuing fault lines.

A single meeting cannot sweep aside decades of border disputes, economic rivalry, and mistrust. Domestic pressures in both countries will keep public scrutiny on any concessions or movement.

Signs of Reset or Cautious Realignment?

The summit in Tianjin will test both the depth of thaw and the limits of rapprochement. India’s willingness to re-engage signals realism, but any reset will be slow, tentative, and contingent on continued progress in border management and mutual respect for security concerns.

Still, sustained summitry and high-level contact represent real progress after years of silence. The outcome may not be a dramatic reset, but it could build the foundation for pragmatic cooperation and help prevent future crises.

In a world filled with shifting alliances and new economic pressures, even incremental gains in India-China relations could have far-reaching consequences.