US exhibitors at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai are expressing cautious optimism about a new path toward normalized trade between the United States and China.
This year’s expo follows a framework agreement reached by Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in South Korea, giving many hope that years of tariff-driven disruptions may finally be coming to an end.
At the expo, the mood was optimistic among American agricultural exporters and industry officials.
Marked by prominent displays of US produce and a bustling pavilion, exhibitors noted both renewed business activity and a sense of relief following recent diplomatic progress.
Will US-China Trade Relations Improve After CIIE 2025?
The meeting between President Xi and President Trump in early November laid the groundwork for removing several tariffs and export controls, many of which had hit US farm exports hard.
Industry leaders, such as Jeffrey Lehman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, described the current atmosphere as hopeful.
He emphasized that many participants returned because they believe in future partnerships and a friendlier trading climate.
Despite these gains, analysts caution that deeper issues underlying the trade war have yet to be resolved.
The latest agreement is seen as a tactical truce rather than a comprehensive reset. Both sides remain wary, and commercial buyers in China continue to weigh costs, given that US soybeans still face a 13 percent tariff.
Did you know?
China’s International Import Expo is the only national-level expo globally dedicated entirely to imports, attracting participation from over 150 countries yearly.
How Are Agricultural Exports Driving Optimism at the Expo?
American exhibitors, especially those representing industries like soybeans, sorghum, wine, and ginseng, praised the recent resumption of exports to China.
Jim Sutter, CEO of the US Soybean Export Council, noted that plans for participation were set before the diplomatic breakthrough, reflecting their ongoing commitment to stable trade.
Mark Wilson of the US Grains and BioProducts Council noted that Chinese purchases of US soybeans and sorghum are up, signaling a potential return to pre-trade-war levels.
Before tariff hikes, China accounted for the vast majority of US sorghum exports. US companies expect expanding partnerships as restrictions ease, although uncertainty still defines long-term planning.
Is China’s Trade Surplus Still a Major Concern for the US?
As China’s international profile grows, so does its trade surplus, expected to surpass last year’s record of approximately $1 trillion. Exporters have shifted focus, selling more goods to other markets.
While US agricultural exports are recovering, overall US sales to China remain subdued compared to pre-trade-war levels, raising concerns among policymakers.
The import expo itself was established by President Xi Jinping in 2018 to showcase China’s commitment to free trade and address criticisms about its global surplus.
Skeptics question whether these efforts make a measurable difference, especially since the surplus with the US has only expanded in recent years.
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Can Recent Policy Changes Support Long-Term Export Growth?
Policy adjustments, including the restoration of soybean export licenses and a partial rollback of tariffs, provide immediate relief for American companies.
However, continued tariffs and year-to-year volatility keep strategic planning difficult. Some industry analysts suggest that relief could be short-lived without a more durable diplomatic settlement.
As state media reported, this year’s expo generated intended turnover of more than $83 billion, a record figure and a 4.4 percent increase over last year.
Over 4,100 enterprises participated, and US companies maintained the most significant exhibition area for the seventh year. Still, officials warn that these successes may prove fragile if trade tensions resurface.
What Does Industry Sentiment Signal About Future Trade?
Within the bustling halls of CIIE, the optimism was tempered by sober reflection among American executives.
They repeatedly stressed the importance of ongoing dialogue and the willingness to adapt should relations fluctuate again.
Partnerships initiated at expos like CIIE help foster resiliency, yet participants know that positive sentiment is no guarantee of lasting change.
US exhibitors remain hopeful, but are advised to prepare for possible setbacks. For now, the interplay of renewed opportunity, persistent tariffs, and evolving policy keeps markets on edge.
As China’s role in global trade continues to grow, watchers anticipate further diplomatic milestones and potential economic recalibrations.
There is a strong sense among expo attendees that, whether or not 2025 marks a final turning point, direct engagement and industry collaboration will remain central to building a more stable US-China trade future.
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