Crude oil futures advanced for a second straight day as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine fueled anxiety over global energy supplies. Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian oil refineries contributed to renewed volatility in the market, pushing both WTI and Brent contracts up by approximately 2.5% each.
Besides conflict-driven headlines, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report revealed another decline in American crude inventories, adding further momentum to the rally.
The late September price action reflected the combined geopolitical and supply-side drivers seen in real time.
What Prompted Recent Gains in Crude Futures?
The rebound in crude futures came as market participants responded swiftly to reports of sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
Supply disruption fears spread across trading desks, with some analysts suggesting the tension acts as an immediate floor under global crude prices. Even speculative traders moved to hedge bets for further upside.
Data from Volatility Indexes indicated heightened risk sentiment, as investors tracked new developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
With media coverage intensifying, market reactions became more pronounced each time another strategic energy facility came under threat.
Did you know?
The U.S. SPR was established in 1975 under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act in response to the 1973-1974 oil embargo.
How Are Ukrainian Strikes Impacting Russian Oil Supply?
Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks targeted several major Russian refineries in recent days, disrupting part of the nation’s oil output.
Some facilities suffered operational slowdowns, while others endured temporary shutdowns, which contributed to concerns over a tighter near-term global supply.
Market observers noted that each successful strike has the potential to lower Russia’s export capacity, amplify logistical hurdles, and cause ripple effects in regional fuel markets. Traders are recalibrating their forecasts in light of these recurring disruptions.
What Role Did U.S. Stock Changes Play?
Beyond the geopolitical shocks, last week’s EIA petroleum status report reported a 607,000 barrel drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.
Despite an uptick in imports and a dip in exports, the persistent decline in crude stocks added fresh pressure to global supply balances.
Falling inventories suggest robust end-user demand amid supply squeezes, prompting further upward movement in futures contracts.
Analysts pointed out that tighter U.S. stockpiles, paired with active conflict in a top oil-exporting region, reinforced the bullish momentum.
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How Are WTI and Brent Benchmarks Responding?
On Wednesday, both the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude benchmarks settled sharply higher, closing at $64.99 and $69.31 per barrel, respectively.
This marked a 2.5% daily increase for each contract, their strongest back-to-back performance in weeks.
Energy traders cited the confluence of Ukrainian attacks, Russian supply risks, and shrinking U.S. stocks as reasons for the substantial price uptick.
Market analysts emphasized that rolling volatility can persist as long as headline risks from the conflict remain unresolved.
What Lies Ahead for Energy Markets?
Looking beyond this week’s surge, many analysts expect geopolitics to remain the defining theme for energy trading.
Continued Ukrainian strikes or retaliatory measures may prompt further gains, especially if Russian infrastructure sustains additional damage.
At the same time, fundamentals such as U.S. inventory trends and OPEC’s reaction to ongoing supply disturbances will remain in focus.
With oil prices already responding to a mix of anxiety and loss of supply cushion, a prolonged standoff could keep volatility elevated for the foreseeable future.
Market participants are now tracking possible escalation in the conflict and how that could factor into OPEC+ decisions.
As volatility endures, investors and importers will need to plan for uncertain pricing and supply conditions across the final months of 2025.
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