On May 15, 2025, global financial markets are fixated on key economic releases, with the UK’s March GDP and US retail sales data expected to shape investor sentiment.
Wednesday’s quiet US economic calendar gave way to trade optimism, driven by recent Middle East diplomatic developments and a new US-UK trade agreement.
However, Federal Reserve officials’ cautious stance on monetary policy underscored uncertainties, with signs of slowing growth prompting a data-driven approach.
Equity markets displayed mixed performance, as the S&P 500 climbed 0.72% to 19,146.81, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.21% to 42,051.06, according to real-time market data. Commodities faced pressure, with gold dropping 2.1% to $3,181.30 and crude oil falling to $62.91 per barrel.
ALSO READ | Global Bond Markets Reel as U.S. Credit Downgrade and Trump’s Tax Bill Spark Fiscal Fears
Key Economic Releases on the Horizon
Today’s economic calendar is packed with high-impact data. The US will release its second Q1 GDP estimate, expected to show 0.6% growth, alongside April’s producer price inflation (PPI), retail sales, and weekly unemployment claims.
Consensus forecasts predict flat headline retail sales at 0.0%, following March’s 1.4% surge, with core retail sales projected to rise 0.3%. The UK’s March GDP is anticipated to stall at 0.0%, while the Eurozone’s Q1 GDP estimate holds steady at 0.4%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C., is expected to provide further clarity on rate policy amid rising US Treasury yields, which hit 4.55% for 10-year notes.
Did You Know?
The US-UK trade agreement announced on May 13, 2025, eliminates tariffs on over $200 billion in bilateral goods, boosting sectors like technology and automotive.
Currency and Commodity Movements
The US dollar experienced volatility, dropping over 1.5 cents in the European session before recovering in US trading. In forex markets, USD/JPY reached 146.00 but faced resistance at the 200-day moving average of 148.50, signaling a potential retracement.
Gold’s sharp decline, now trading near $3,250 after a 1.9% drop, reflects a shift toward risk assets following the US-UK trade deal. Crude oil prices continued their slide, with Brent crude at $69.80 and WTI at $66.50, partly due to expectations of increased supply from Iran following its nuclear deal proposal. Bitcoin, however, bucked the trend, gaining 6% to $103,850, buoyed by optimism in US-China relations and the US-UK trade agreement.
ALSO READ | Global Markets Rally as China Slashes Rates and US Trade Hopes Rise
Crypto Market Resilience
The cryptocurrency market showed strength, with Ethereum rallying nearly 20% above $2,200 after the Pectra upgrade enhanced wallet and staking features. Bitcoin’s consolidation above $100,000 signals an important turning point, contrasting with the retreat in traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
The positive sentiment in crypto markets aligns with broader risk-on flows, though analysts warn of potential volatility if upcoming economic data disappoints or trade tensions resurface.
Comments (0)
Please sign in to leave a comment