Gold Price Forecast: Will XAU/USD Hold $3,155 Support Amid US Data and Powell’s Speech?

Gold prices are teetering near monthly lows below $3,200 as investors brace for critical US economic data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech on Thursday, May 15, 2025.

The precious metal, which suffered a steep 2% decline in the previous session, is under pressure as the US dollar pauses its rebound and market sentiment sours in Asian trading.

Gold's near-term trajectory remains uncertain as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data are set to shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,155 is a pivotal support level, and its defense could determine whether gold rebounds or slides further toward $3,100.

US Data and Fed Expectations Shape Gold’s Path

The gold market is at a crossroads as traders await high-impact US economic releases. The US PPI is expected to show a decline to 2.5% year-over-year in April, down from 2.7% in March, signaling cooling inflationary pressures.

Retail sales, meanwhile, are projected to rise by 0.4% month-over-month, potentially boosted by consumers frontloading purchases to dodge anticipated US tariffs.

These data points will shape the market’s outlook on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September 2025 and roughly 53 basis points of easing priced in for the year.

Fewer expected rate cuts are weighing on non-yielding gold, despite a slightly cooler-than-expected US CPI of 2.3% in April, below forecasts of 2.4%.

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Geopolitical Shifts and Deficit Concerns

Geopolitical developments are adding complexity to gold’s price action. Optimism surrounding a US-China trade truce and progress in US-South Korea trade talks has reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Expectations of a potential US-Iran nuclear deal further dampen gold’s appeal. However, risks remain, as faltering Ukraine-Russia peace talks could sour risk sentiment and bolster gold’s safe-haven status.

Additionally, the US Treasury’s report of a $1.049 trillion budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal 2025, up 23% from last year, is fueling concerns about fiscal sustainability, which could support gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

Did You Know?
Gold has historically served as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with its price rising over 400% since the early 2000s, outpacing most major asset classes.

Technical Outlook: $3,155 Support in Focus

Technically speaking, the daily chart of gold presents a bearish outlook. The price is trading below the 21-day SMA at $3,308, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) languishing near 44, signaling potential for further declines.

A decisive break below the critical 50-day SMA at $3,155 could lead to a decline towards the $3,100 round level or the April 10 low of $3,072.

A deeper correction might target the 100-day SMA at $2,972. Conversely, if buyers defend $3,155, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $3,308 could materialize, with the falling trendline resistance at $3,419 as the next hurdle.

ALSO READ | Gold Prices Drop as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Ease, Investors Eye Fed’s Next Moves

Real-Time Market Insights

Recent market data underscores gold’s vulnerability. As of May 15, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,160, down 0.3% on the day, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of US data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower to 102.80, providing some breathing room for gold. However, rising US 10-year Treasury yields, hovering near 4.1%, continue to cap gold’s upside.

Sentiment on social platforms highlights mixed views, with some traders eyeing a potential bounce if US data disappoints, while others warn of a deeper correction if $3,155 fails to hold.