Climate scientists delivered a stark assessment at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, this week, confirming that the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is no longer achievable.
The sobering conclusion comes as world leaders mark the 10th anniversary of the landmark climate treaty, confronting a reality where fossil fuel emissions continue to surge despite a decade of international commitments.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach a record 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, representing a 1.1% increase over 2024 and more than 7% growth since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
The findings, released by the Global Carbon Project as delegates convened in Brazil, paint a troubling picture of climate progress that falls dramatically short of what scientists say is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
What Does the Carbon Budget Tell Us About Our Climate Future
The remaining carbon budget for staying within the 1.5 °C threshold now stands at just 170 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to only four years at current emission levels.
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the Global Carbon Budget study, stated plainly that with CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5 °C is no longer plausible.
The world is now on track for 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century, far exceeding the Paris Agreement's goals.
Alice Larkin, a climate scientist at the University of Manchester, emphasized the mathematical reality facing policymakers.
At this point, emission reductions would need to exceed 20% per year globally to avoid a 1.5 °C temperature rise, a pace of change that no major economy has demonstrated the capacity or political will to achieve.
The window to meet the Paris Agreement's most ambitious target has effectively closed, forcing climate strategists to refocus on preventing even more dangerous levels of warming.
Did you know?
Electric vehicles now represent one in five cars sold worldwide in 2025, a dramatic increase from just 1% market share when the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
Why Are Global Emissions Still Rising After Paris
Despite a decade of climate summits and national commitments, global emissions have continued their upward trajectory, though at a slower pace than in previous decades.
The rate of emissions growth has averaged 0.3% per year over the past decade compared to 1.9% annually in the decade before Paris, indicating some progress in bending the curve.
However, even if all countries fully implemented their current commitments, global emissions would decrease by only 2.6% from 2019 levels by 2030, far short of the 43% reduction needed to align with the 1.5 °C target.
The persistence of fossil fuel dependency remains the central obstacle to meaningful emissions reductions. While renewable energy deployment has accelerated and clean technology costs have fallen dramatically, the global energy system continues to rely heavily on coal, oil, and natural gas.
Tanyeli Sabuncu of WWF Turkey acknowledged that there has been some progress since Paris, but emphasized it remains far from sufficient to keep the world below the critical threshold, calling for action to go much further and faster.
How Are Nations Responding Without Federal US Leadership
COP30 highlighted a stark divide in North American climate leadership, with profound implications for global cooperation. Canada sent a high-level delegation of 240 people led by Environment and Climate Change Minister Julie Dabrusin, including Indigenous representatives, civil society organizations, and provincial leaders.
Canada endorsed several initiatives at the summit, including the Belém 4x Pledge on Sustainable Fuels and the Declaration of the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets, demonstrating the federal government's continued commitment to the Paris framework.
In contrast, the United States federal government sent no senior representatives after President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement for the second time in January 2025.
However, more than 100 US sub-national leaders attended through the America Is All In coalition, led by California Governor Gavin Newsom.
The delegation represents approximately 60% of the US economy and 55% of the population. Newsom stated he came to COP30 with humility, acknowledging that the Trump administration has abandoned any sense of duty and responsibility regarding climate action.
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What Progress Has Been Made in Clean Energy Since 2015
The decade since Paris has witnessed remarkable growth in clean energy investment and deployment, even as overall emissions continued to rise.
Investment in clean energy reached $2.2 trillion in 2025, double the amount invested in fossil fuels, according to the International Energy Agency.
This shift represents a complete reversal from a decade ago, when fossil fuel investment outpaced electricity-focused investment by 30%, demonstrating how rapidly the economics of energy have transformed.
Electric vehicle adoption has emerged as one of the most visible success stories of the post-Paris era. One in five cars sold worldwide is now electric, up from just 1% in 2015, reflecting both technological advances and supportive policy frameworks in significant markets.
Renewable energy capacity, particularly solar and wind, has expanded far beyond what most analysts predicted in 2015, driven by dramatic cost reductions that have made clean energy increasingly competitive with fossil fuels in many regions.
Can the World Still Avoid Catastrophic Warming Levels
While the 1.5 °C target may be out of reach, climate scientists emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters and that limiting temperature rise to 2 °C remains physically possible.
The Paris Agreement established 2 °C as an absolute ceiling with 1.5 °C as an aspirational goal, recognizing that different warming levels carry vastly different consequences for ecosystems, human societies, and economic systems.
Current trajectories point to warming well above 2 °C, but aggressive action in the next five years could still prevent the most catastrophic scenarios.
The path forward requires unprecedented acceleration in emissions reductions across all sectors of the global economy.
Countries will need to submit strengthened national climate plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions, in 2025 that align with the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2 °C.
Success will depend on the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, massive scaling of renewable energy and energy efficiency, protection and restoration of natural carbon sinks, and financial support to help developing nations transition to clean energy.
The decisions made at COP30 and in the immediate aftermath will largely determine whether the world can stabilize the climate at dangerous but manageable levels, or whether warming will spiral toward truly catastrophic outcomes that threaten the foundations of human civilization.
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