Bitcoin traded below 113,000 on Wednesday evening as traders positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision, with the price touching an intraday low near 112,075 and extending a three-day pullback from Monday’s 116,410 high.
The weekly performance remained positive, though near-term momentum cooled as the market weighed policy guidance and the outlook for risk assets.
Expectations for a quarter-point cut remained high heading into the announcement, but focus centered on the tone of Chair Jerome Powell and any signals on December.
Traders sought clarity on whether a second cut is likely and how the Committee reads the balance of growth and inflation risks, a mix that could steer crypto volatility in either direction.
What changes if Powell sounds dovish?
A dovish lean could validate the current market base case, a quarter-point reduction today with a conditional path to an additional cut by December if inflation progresses.
That outcome may support broad liquidity conditions, stabilize risk sentiment, and aid a rebound in crypto beta segments that lagged in recent sessions.
Dovish guidance would also shape rate expectations along the curve, easing financial conditions through lower forward yields and a softer dollar.
For Bitcoin, a benign dollar backdrop tends to reduce macro headwinds, especially when real yields slip, which historically correlates with improved risk appetite and stronger spot demand through the week.
Did you know?
In 2014, the U.S. Marshals Service auctioned nearly 30,000 Bitcoin seized from Silk Road, a lot won by venture capitalist Tim Draper, a purchase that became one of the most storied crypto auctions on record.
Why is the 112,000-113,000 range a key BTC zone?
The 112,000 to 113,000 area has been tracked as a short-term pivot, where dip interest and momentum selling recently intersected. Intraday action showed buyers defending the lower bound, while a failure to reclaim 114,000 kept rallies contained, a pattern consistent with consolidation ahead of scheduled macro events.
Holding this shelf would keep the structure constructive for a retest of 114,000 to 116,000 if policy is read as market-friendly.
A break below 112,000 would signal trend fatigue and open a slide toward psychological and prior support levels near 110,000, where liquidity pockets could slow downside follow-through.
What is the chart pattern Brandt highlights?
Veteran trader Peter Brandt pointed to a possibility anchored in a triangle-style consolidation within his AIRR framework, urging market participants to define confirmation and failure levels with discipline.
His message emphasized process over prediction, asking traders to specify when the pattern validates or negates based on price behavior.
Brandt also responded with a bullish megaphone outcome if the triangle view fails, acknowledging the scenario as credible.
He shared an additional chart on Dow futures to illustrate the concept, reinforcing that pattern recognition should remain adaptive as evidence changes around key inflection points.
How could a megaphone scenario fuel upside?
If the triangle idea negates and morphs into a broadening structure, a bullish megaphone can mark expanding ranges with higher highs and higher lows across swings.
Such a shift often reflects rising participation, trend acceleration, and a willingness to buy strength, conditions that can quickly pull Bitcoin back toward prior resistance bands.
In that case, failed breakdowns become fuel for squeezes as short covering meets incremental spot demand.
The immediate magnets would include Monday’s 116,410 high and round number levels beyond, with liquidity gaps creating fast lanes for price discovery if macro catalysts align with technical confirmation.
What should traders watch for the Fed?
First, the policy statement and summary of the vote will set the baseline for tonight’s reaction, followed by Powell’s press conference that will shape the forward glide path.
The balance between inflation vigilance and growth risks will be parsed for clues in December, as markets mark to model a two-step easing sequence or a one-and-done outcome.
Second, watch real-time responses in the dollar, the two-year Treasury yield, and rate-sensitive equity sectors, which often lead directional cues for crypto.
A softer dollar and easing front-end yields typically correlate with stronger Bitcoin intraday, while a hawkish surprise or sticky real yields tend to cap rallies and favor ranges.
Into the event, plan scenarios that define confirmation and failure, as Brandt advised, with levels around 112,000 and 114,000 acting as practical triggers.
Above 114,000, momentum strategies may re-engage with sights on 116,000 and beyond, while sustained trade below 112,000 argues for patience until liquidity improves near 110,000 or a reclaim confirms demand.
Liquidity conditions around the announcement can be thin, which increases the risk of wicks and false starts, so execution discipline matters as much as direction.
Traders often scale entries rather than commit at once, use protective stops outside noise zones, and review position size to match volatility bands typical for policy days.
As the decision prints and Powell speaks, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads where macro policy meets an evolving chart narrative.
The next chapter will likely be written by tone and timing, not just the headline rate change, and by how price behaves around the thresholds that define whether consolidation ends with a break higher or a deeper reset.
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