Trump Media & Technology Group said it would introduce Truth Predict, a prediction markets feature built into Truth Social, positioning the platform as a first mover among major social apps that embed real-money event contracts.
The rollout would rely on a partnership with Crypto.com and begin with a limited beta for U.S. users, pending phased availability and product hardening ahead of a full launch.
Devin Nunes framed the initiative as an expansion of user participation and the conversion of speech into measurable signals, arguing that crowd odds can translate attention into foresight.
The company said its initial focus would cover elections, interest rate decisions, core commodities, and high-profile sports, with a roadmap to expand listings alongside liquidity and compliance milestones.
What is Truth Predict and how will it work?
Truth Predict is described as an in-app marketplace where users buy contracts tied to future outcomes, with payouts triggered when an event resolves and data is verified.
The feature is designed to appear alongside the social feed to reduce friction and to improve discovery through topic-based navigation, notifications, and curated slates during key news cycles.
The Crypto.com integration is expected to handle identity checks, payments, custody, and contract settlement, which are essential for onboarding and risk controls.
Truth Social plans to gate access with age verification and enhanced settings, while surfacing probability updates and resolution notices through channel-specific alerts that avoid feed clutter during spikes.
Did you know?
In several academic studies, well structured prediction markets have matched or exceeded specific polling aggregates on event probability calibration, especially close to decision dates when liquidity and information rise.
Which markets will U.S. users see first?
At launch, listings are slated to include election outcomes, Federal Reserve rate decisions, benchmark commodities such as gold and crude oil, and significant sports matchups.
The product would highlight economic calendars, candidate milestones, and league schedules to align liquidity with events that have clear timelines and frequent information updates.
Contracts would be grouped by category and time horizon so that users can compare near-term decisions with longer-term races or seasons.
The platform plans to showcase trending lines, implied probabilities, and settlement criteria to help new participants understand what is being priced and how outcomes are verified upon the event's conclusion.
Why is the prediction market sector surging?
Trading volumes across prediction venues have accelerated, with weekly activity now reported in the billions of dollars as retail and institutional participants converge around event risk.
The sector has benefited from rising media coverage, easier user interfaces, and the entry of large financial backers who view event contracts as a distinct information asset class.
Intercontinental Exchange signaled mainstream interest by committing significant capital to a leading platform, thereby raising the profile of event-driven trading strategies.
Competitors have posted heavy weekly volumes, indicating that headline catalysts such as elections and rate paths can sustain liquidity beyond one-off news spikes as narratives evolve.
How do rules and oversight apply to these bets?
In the United States, event contracts may fall under federal derivatives oversight rather than state gambling regimes when structured as commodities or economic indicators.
Platforms that list election markets face additional scrutiny, so product design and resolution methods must align with regulatory expectations on integrity, transparency, and risk controls.
Compliance programs typically include identity verification, transaction monitoring, position limits, and clear resolution sources, supported by independent audits and incident reporting.
Integrations with regulated financial partners can streamline custody and payments, while also imposing standardized controls that help platforms scale listings without compromising safeguards.
What does this mean for Trump Media’s business?
An embedded markets layer could boost engagement, session duration, and monetization by enabling price discovery within the social experience.
The company has sought new revenue lines to offset modest advertising traction, and a trading feature could add fees, spreads, or premium tools tied to analytics, alerts, and higher limits for verified accounts.
Partnerships in crypto and finance may deepen, especially if liquidity anchors around marquee events that demand robust settlement and data integrity.
Investor attention could pivot to user growth, conversion to active traders, and compliance costs, with milestones linked to beta performance, regulatory feedback, and the cadence of national events that drive volume.
Looking ahead, the platform will be judged on execution, market quality, and trust, not just novelty.
If Truth Predict maintains reliable settlement, clear rules, and responsive controls during volatile news cycles, embedded event pricing could become a durable feature of social media, creating new competition for standalone venues and traditional financial products.
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