Trump’s High-Stakes Calls: Can He Broker a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War?

Trump’s strategy hinges on leveraging his personal rapport with Putin, built over years of interactions, to break the deadlock. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, expressed optimism, stating the 90-minute call with Putin could “clear the logjam” toward a 30-day ceasefire. The White House hopes to expand the talks into a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea and, ultimately, a permanent peace.

However, Trump’s earlier proposal for a 30-day truce, accepted by Ukraine in March, has been met with resistance from Putin, who demands an end to Western military aid and Ukrainian mobilization.

Russia's recent drone attacks, including a massive strike on May 11, have killed dozens in Ukraine, underscoring the urgency of a truce, according to real-time data.

Trump’s discussions will also involve NATO leaders, signaling a broader diplomatic effort to align Western allies amid fears of escalating U.S.-Russia trade talks.

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Challenges and Criticisms

Trump’s approach has drawn scrutiny, particularly after former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink resigned in February, citing pressure on Ukraine rather than Russia.

Brink labeled Trump’s strategy as “appeasement,” warning it could embolden further aggression. A contentious February Oval Office meeting, where Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated Zelenskyy for perceived ingratitude, fueled concerns about U.S. impartiality.

Zelenskyy, while open to diplomacy, insists on security guarantees and no territorial concessions, particularly over Crimea, which Trump has suggested could remain with Russia.

The Ukrainian leader’s recent talks with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Rome on May 18 highlighted Kyiv’s push for sanctions and defense support, with Zelenskyy noting Russia’s “low-level” delegation in Istanbul as a sign of Moscow’s reluctance.

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Economic and Geopolitical Stakes

Trump’s call with Putin will also address trade, potentially using economic levers to incentivize peace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that failure by Putin to negotiate in good faith could trigger new sanctions, targeting Russia’s oil revenues more aggressively than Biden-era measures.

Russia’s economy, battered by sanctions since 2022, relies heavily on oil exports to China and India, with 2024 imports to the U.S. dropping to just 10,000 barrels.

Bessent noted that global oil price stability remains a concern, complicating sanctions. The war’s economic toll is stark: Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 29% in 2022, while Russia’s faces a projected -2.5% growth in 2025, per IMF estimates. Social media discussions highlight fears that Trump’s trade focus could lead to a deal favoring Moscow, potentially ceding Ukrainian territory.

Outlook: A Fragile Path to Peace

Analysts are skeptical of a swift resolution, given Putin’s rejection of a U.S.-backed 30-day truce in April and his insistence on retaining seized territories.

Zelenskyy’s call for “tough measures” against Russia, including sanctions, reflects Kyiv’s distrust of Moscow’s ceasefire commitments, especially after Russia violated an Easter truce with over 3,000 breaches.

European leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, have urged Trump to enforce any agreement, with threats of “massive sanctions” if Russia reneges. The prisoner exchange agreement, with 1,000 swaps planned this week, offers a rare positive note.

Trump’s success depends on navigating Putin’s maximalist demands and Zelenskyy’s resolve, with the world watching whether his dealmaking can deliver peace or deepen divisions.