Trump’s Rare Earth Deal: Can It Secure America’s Defense?

President Donald Trump’s June 11 trade deal with China, announced after tense London talks, reopens the flow of rare earth minerals vital for U.S. military might, think F-35 jets, Tomahawk missiles, and nuclear submarines.

China’s earlier export bans, slashing supplies of samarium for missile guidance, forced factory shutdowns and exposed a glaring vulnerability: Beijing controls 90% of global rare earth refining and 70% of U.S. imports.

With 55% tariffs on Chinese goods and a fragile truce, Trump’s team is invoking Cold War-era Defense Production Act (DPA) powers to fund domestic players like MP Materials.

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Domestic Push: MP Materials’ Moment to Shine

MP Materials, the sole U.S. rare earth producer, saw its stock soar 17% on June 12 after news broke of Trump’s DPA plans. The Nevada-based company, already backed by $44.6 million in Pentagon funding since 2020, is scaling up its Mountain Pass mine to produce neodymium and samarium for defense contractors like Lockheed Martin.

Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg is fast-tracking loans to build a full mine-to-magnet supply chain by 2027, a Pentagon goal. But with China processing 92% of global rare earths, domestic efforts face years of catch-up.

Did you know?
In 1962, the U.S. used the Defense Production Act to secure titanium for SR-71 Blackbird jets, outpacing Soviet supply chains. Trump’s rare earth push mirrors this, aiming to fortify U.S. military tech against China’s dominance.

Africa’s Role: A Risky Bet on Congo and Rwanda

Trump's team is not focusing solely on China. U.S. diplomats have secured deals with Congo and Rwanda, home to 30% of global rare earth reserves, to prioritize American firms like TechMet in mining investments.

A peace framework in the conflict-ridden region aims to stabilize operations, but Trump’s cuts to African aid and expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador raise doubts.

China’s Grip: A Lingering Threat

Despite the deal, China’s bureaucratic delays in export licenses, considered leverage in trade talks, keep U.S. defense firms like Raytheon on edge. The Pentagon's reliance on 900 pounds of rare earth per F-35 jet highlights the significant risks involved.

Trump’s framework swaps visa access for Chinese students for mineral exports, but Beijing’s 125% retaliatory tariffs and history of weaponizing supply chains (like 2019’s Saudi oil strikes) signal ongoing risks.

Experts warn that without robust domestic and allied sources, America’s military edge remains precarious. Will Trump’s deal and African push secure America’s defense, or is China’s rare earth dominance too entrenched to break?