What Does Bitcoin’s 9th Bullish RSI Signal Mean for Traders?

Bitcoin traders are focusing on a crucial technical indicator, the weekly stochastic RSI, which has just flipped bullish for the ninth time in the current market cycle. Historically, these RSI signals have preceded substantial rallies, prompting hopes for another meaningful upward move as the market sits near $115,000.

This bullish crossover arrives just days before the Federal Reserve’s policy update, bringing heightened volatility as traders weigh technical optimism against broader macroeconomic uncertainty. With resistance looming near $117,000, a breakout here could shift Bitcoin’s long-term trend.

What Is the Weekly Stochastic RSI, and Why Does It Matter?

Crypto analysts frequently use the weekly stochastic relative strength index (RSI) as a momentum indicator to identify periods of trend change. When the stochastic RSI crosses into bullish territory, it typically suggests that buying pressure is set to increase, which in Bitcoin's current cycle has preceded several significant price surges.

Crypto investor Jelle highlights that this is the ninth crossover of the cycle, and each previous signal has generated an average 35% rally. These technical signals encourage traders to watch for price acceleration and confirm possible momentum shifts on broader time frames.

Did you know?
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI bullish crossover has correctly signaled an average 35% rally in eight previous instances this cycle.

How Reliable Is the 35% Rally Signal for Bitcoin?

Despite the close observation of technical patterns, not all analysts hold the belief that they are infallible. Network economist Timothy Peterson cautions that, while chart signals have mapped out past rallies, macro conditions may not always align.

Peterson’s model, which follows cyclical averages, nonetheless sees potential for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 within approximately six months if history repeats.

A 35% jump from current levels would bring Bitcoin near $155,000, a target echoed by other traders. However, prevailing sentiment remains cautious as short-term liquidity pressures and upcoming U.S. monetary policy updates add variables into the mix.

What Are Analysts Expecting Ahead of the FOMC Decision?

Market watchers are bracing for Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate announcement, which could stoke price swings across risk assets.

Crypto analyst Skew notes that heightened ask-bid liquidity, especially short positions clustered near $116,000, reflects consensus trades built around current volatility expectations.

Analysts warn that market makers may be behind some top-heavy order book setups and that price spikes could be fleeting if rates change sharply or policy guidance shifts.

A dovish signal could fuel upside, while hawkish sentiment may cap any rally attempt.

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Do Macro and On-Chain Signals Support a Bullish Scenario?

Recent on-chain data shows short-term holder whales defending the $108,000-$109,000 area, returning to profitability, and supporting price strength. Historically, such on-chain recoveries have set the stage for breakouts after periods of consolidation.

On the macro front, Bitcoin and other risk assets continue to benefit from growing liquidity and economic expansion, as equities reach new highs and gold demonstrates fresh momentum.

With eight out of ten bull market indicators now bearish, traders remain split on whether this technical signal marks the beginning of another sustained rally or a fleeting bounce.

What Are Key Levels and Risks for Traders Right Now?

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $117,000-$118,000, a threshold chartists consider crucial for confirming a long-term uptrend. Above this range, technical targets shift toward all-time highs; below, traders warn of potential consolidation and shakeouts.

Liquidity pressures, market manipulation risks, and uncertain macroeconomic policy all remain in focus this week.

As traders weigh whether the latest RSI bullish crossover will deliver its typical rally, key events like the FOMC rate decision are poised to set the tone for the rest of the year.

With Bitcoin trading just 8 percent below its record price, traders must watch both technical signals and broader macro trends.

Whether this RSI signal launches a fresh rally or proves a false start, investors are preparing for a decisive period in crypto markets.