Will JPMorgan’s $80 Price Target for Circle Prove Accurate by Late 2026?

JPMorgan analysts, led by Kenneth Worthington, initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) shares with an underweight rating and an $80 price target by December 2026.

This projection, down 55% from Circle’s current share price of $180, is based on a 45x multiple of projected 2027 earnings per share (EPS) plus a $10 premium for upside potential.

The target implies a market cap of approximately $21 billion, a significant reduction from the current $43.8 billion valuation.

How Does Circle’s Market Position Affect the Forecast

Circle is well-regarded for its early-mover advantage and broad use cases in the stablecoin market, particularly with its USDC stablecoin. However, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that Circle’s current market capitalization is elevated, considering the nascent and rapidly evolving nature of the stablecoin sector.

The bank’s underweight rating reflects concerns that Circle’s market share could erode as competition intensifies and switching costs remain low.

Did you know?
Circle’s USDC stablecoin is the second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization, trailing only Tether (USDT). Despite its strong position, USDC’s growth is closely tied to regulatory developments and the broader adoption of digital assets in global finance.

What Role Does Competition Play in JPMorgan’s Outlook

JPMorgan highlights competition as a primary threat to Circle, citing not only direct stablecoin rivals but also emerging crypto investment products such as tokenized deposit accounts and digital money market funds.

The risk is that competitors could leverage Circle’s established network and gain critical mass, undermining Circle’s growth and profitability. This competitive pressure is a key factor in the bank’s cautious price target.

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How Might Regulatory Changes Impact Circle’s Path

The analysts also point to regulatory risks, particularly in the US and Europe. New stablecoin regulations, similar to Europe’s MiCA framework, may require issuers like Circle to hold more equity capital based on the amount of stablecoins in circulation.

While Circle currently has sufficient equity to support its USDC stablecoin in the US, higher capital requirements could restrict future growth. Additionally, the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in major markets could further challenge Circle’s global expansion.

Is the $80 Price Target Realistic or Overly Conservative?

Market forecasts for Circle vary widely. Some data sources suggest a stagnant or even declining price trend, while others predict moderate gains or even higher prices by 2026.

JPMorgan’s $80 target is notably more bearish than many independent forecasts, reflecting the bank’s emphasis on competitive and regulatory headwinds.

The accuracy of this target will depend on Circle’s ability to maintain its market position, navigate regulatory changes, and fend off new entrants in the stablecoin space.