Will the surge in Bitcoin long-term holder supply trigger a new price rally above $100,000

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), defined as investors holding BTC for at least six months, have increased their supply by a historic 800,000 coins over the past 30 days, according to CryptoQuant data. This surge marks one of the highest rolling 30-day increases in Bitcoin’s history, previously surpassed only six times, with prior instances preceding significant price rallies in 2021 and 2024.

This accumulation reflects a robust “hodl” mentality among seasoned investors who are doubling down despite Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs above $100,000. The growing concentration of BTC in long-term hands is widely interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future value.

Cost basis between $93,000 and $107,000 forms critical support zone

The coins entering the long-term holder category predominantly have a purchase price between $95,000 and $107,000, reinforcing this range as a key support zone for Bitcoin’s price. Short-term holders (STHs), who hold coins for less than six months, have an aggregate cost basis just below $100,000, a level that has historically provided support during bull market corrections.

Recent price retracements to around $98,000 have respected this support, suggesting that as long as Bitcoin remains above the $93,000-$107,000 band, the bull market structure is intact. A breakdown below this range could trigger deeper corrections if holders within this cost basis capitulate and increase selling pressure.

Did you know?
Bitcoin’s first block, known as the Genesis Block, was mined by its creator Satoshi Nakamoto in January 2009. Since then, Bitcoin has evolved into a global digital asset with a capped supply of 21 million coins, making it a deflationary asset unlike traditional fiat currencies.

Institutional interest and market dynamics bolster rally prospects

Institutional involvement, alongside the surge in long-term holder supply, is reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish outlook. The growing participation of institutional investors provides liquidity and stability, often acting as a counterbalance to short-term speculative volatility. Data from Glassnode shows that approximately 73% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders, underscoring a maturing market with reduced sell pressure.

This dynamic, combined with positive macroeconomic factors and increasing adoption, supports the potential for Bitcoin to sustain rallies above $100,000 and possibly reach higher targets forecasted by market experts.

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Historical precedent links LTH accumulation to price surges

Historically, significant increases in long-term holder supply have preceded major Bitcoin price rallies. The two most recent spikes in LTH accumulation, in July 2021 and September 2024, were followed by substantial upward price movements. This pattern suggests that the current record accumulation phase could similarly foreshadow a new bullish cycle.

Long-term holders typically accumulate during market dips and hold through volatility, reducing circulating supply and creating upward price pressure when demand remains steady or grows.

Market risks and the importance of monitoring key levels

Despite the optimistic outlook, investors should remain vigilant of potential risks. Regulatory developments, macroeconomic shifts, or sudden changes in market sentiment could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The critical support zone between $93,000 and $107,000 must hold to maintain bullish momentum.

A breach below this range could lead to increased selling from holders with cost bases in this band, potentially triggering a correction. Continuous monitoring of on-chain metrics and market indicators will be critical for interpreting upcoming price movements effectively.