Bitcoin has a track record of rallying after major US fiscal expansions. When President Trump signed the $2.3 trillion Consolidated Appropriations Act in December 2020, Bitcoin surged by over 50% in less than two weeks.
Analysts see parallels as Trump prepares to sign the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which will raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and extend tax cuts, fueling expectations for another explosive move in the crypto market.
The new bill’s scale dwarfs previous measures, with permanent tax cuts and unprecedented spending. Crypto traders are watching closely, recalling that past stimulus packages have triggered sharp moves in Bitcoin’s price.
Market sentiment is buzzing with predictions that BTC could climb to $150,000 if history repeats itself.
How the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ Alters the Economic Landscape
The legislation, passed along strict partisan lines, is set to dramatically increase the US government’s borrowing capacity. Provisions include permanent extensions of Trump-era tax cuts, massive defense and border security funding, and deep cuts to safety nets like Medicaid and SNAP.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add at least $3.3 trillion to the deficit, with some projections putting the figure even higher.
This surge in government debt, coupled with no significant revenue offsets, has already led to a downgrade of the US credit rating. Interest payments on the national debt have surpassed defense spending for the first time in history, signaling mounting fiscal pressure.
The resulting uncertainty and inflation risk are key factors driving investors toward Bitcoin and other store-of-value assets.
Did you know?
After the 2020 US stimulus bill, Bitcoin surged by over 50% in less than two weeks, setting a precedent for how fiscal policy can drive crypto markets.
Analysts Predict a Bitcoin Rally as Inflation Fears Mount
Financial experts widely agree that the bill’s inflationary potential could benefit Bitcoin. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, notes that “markets have already begun to respond,” with gold and Bitcoin rising on renewed fears about the erosion of purchasing power.
Crypto analyst Ranjay Singh argues that more debt often leads to more money printing, which historically boosts Bitcoin in the long run.
Speculative models suggest Bitcoin could surge by up to 40% in the coming week, potentially reaching new all-time highs if institutional demand accelerates.
The precedent set by previous stimulus-driven rallies is fueling optimism among crypto investors, even as broader economic risks intensify.
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What’s Missing for Crypto in the Bill
Despite intense lobbying, the final version of the bill includes no direct provisions for cryptocurrencies. Last-minute negotiations excluded amendments to clarify crypto tax rules, ease reporting requirements, and eliminate double taxation for miners.
While this leaves regulatory uncertainty unresolved, the indirect effects of the bill’s macroeconomic changes may still prove highly bullish for Bitcoin.
Lawmakers are expected to revisit crypto-specific legislation soon, with “Crypto Week” on the horizon in Congress. For now, Bitcoin’s fate is tied more to fiscal policy than regulatory clarity.
The Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin and the US Economy
The “Big Beautiful Bill” marks a turning point in US fiscal policy, with implications that extend far beyond the crypto market. While Bitcoin may benefit from short-term price surges as investors seek inflation hedges, the broader economic consequences of rising debt, higher interest rates, and social program cuts could reshape the investment landscape for years to come.
As the US debt approaches $40 trillion and interest costs soar, the bill represents a high-stakes gamble on economic growth. For Bitcoin, the coming weeks could be pivotal, as market participants weigh the risks and rewards of a new era in American fiscal policy.
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