Can Solana maintain long-term strength despite a near-term price drop to $120

Solana’s daily chart reveals a head-and-shoulders pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal, suggesting a likely price decline. The critical neckline at $140, if broken with increased volume, could trigger a continuation of the downtrend toward a target near $120. This level aligns with a key liquidity zone and order block between $95 and $120, which may provide substantial buying support in the coming weeks.

The role of Bitcoin in Solana’s price dynamics

Solana’s price movements have shown a strong correlation with Bitcoin throughout the recent quarter. Bitcoin’s potential retest of support near $100,000 could increase sell-side pressure across the crypto market, including SOL. This correlation implies that SOL’s near-term trajectory is partly contingent on Bitcoin’s performance, adding an external layer of risk and uncertainty.

Did you know?
The head-and-shoulders pattern is one of the most reliable technical indicators for predicting trend reversals, often signaling a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.

Onchain data signals robust network usage and investor confidence

Despite bearish price signals, Solana’s onchain metrics present a more optimistic picture. The Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) has fallen below 10, its lowest since February 2025, indicating strong network activity relative to market valuation. This evidence suggests that Solana’s blockchain usage remains healthy, reinforcing the token’s intrinsic value beyond price fluctuations.

Exchange net position changes highlight accumulation trends

Data from Glassnode shows consistent SOL withdrawals from exchanges, a sign of investor accumulation and confidence. Although recent price dips have prompted some SOL to return to exchanges, the overall trend reflects holders moving tokens off exchanges to long-term storage.

Peaks of net outflows, such as the -4.6 million SOL on May 28, underscore this accumulation phase, which may support price stabilization and future gains.

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Balancing short-term volatility with long-term potential

While technical analysis points to a possible correction, the underlying onchain fundamentals suggest Solana’s ecosystem remains strong. Investors should consider this duality: short-term price volatility driven by market sentiment and Bitcoin’s movements, contrasted with sustained network growth and investor confidence. This balance creates a nuanced outlook for SOL’s future trajectory.

Strategic Outlook

Solana’s near-term price correction to around $120 appears likely based on technical patterns and market correlations. However, resilient onchain data and investor accumulation provide a solid foundation for recovery and long-term growth. Market participants should monitor Bitcoin’s trajectory closely while recognizing the strength of Solana’s ecosystem as a key driver for future value appreciation.