Did Lilly Just Outpace Novo? Inside the Weight-Loss Drug Wars

Eli Lilly has raised its full-year earnings forecast for 2025, fueled by surging demand for its weight-loss medications, especially Zepbound and Mounjaro. The company’s sales have topped analyst expectations, signaling a shift in the competitive landscape dominated traditionally by Novo Nordisk.

Despite a recent dip in Lilly’s stock price due to some underwhelming data from its oral weight-loss drug candidate, orforglipron, the company’s robust performance in injectable weight-loss drugs has positioned it strongly in the fast-growing GLP-1 market.

Strong Sales Performance Shakes Up Market

Lilly reported second-quarter sales of $3.38 billion for Zepbound, significantly above the $2.95 billion expected. Sales of Mounjaro, a diabetes drug with strong weight-loss effects, reached $5.20 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $4.74 billion. These numbers helped Lilly increase its share of the U.S. incretins market to 57% during the quarter.

Did you know?
The global market for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is predicted to reach $150 billion in revenue over the next decade.

Competition Heats Up with Novo Nordisk

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy still holds a major presence with weekly U.S. prescriptions at 281,725 compared to Zepbound’s 418,597. However, Lilly’s rapid market penetration threatens Novo Nordisk’s dominance. Both companies are central players in a market expected to generate $150 billion in revenue over the next decade as obesity and metabolic disorders drive demand for GLP-1 agonists.

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Orforglipron Disappointment and Future Outlook

While orforglipron’s trial showed patients lost 12.4% of their body weight after 72 weeks, this was below Novo’s Wegovy at 14.9%, sparking some investor concern reflected in Lilly’s stock decline. Yet this setback has not diminished Lilly’s confidence, as reflected in its upgraded earnings forecast of $21.75 to $23 per share and projected revenues of $60 billion to $62 billion for 2025.

What This Means for the Weight-Loss Drug Market

Lilly’s strong quarter, driven by blockbuster weight-loss drugs, marks a potential turning point in the industry. The competition between Lilly and Novo Nordisk is intensifying, with both companies investing heavily in expanding drug portfolios and targeting new markets worldwide.

As demand for effective weight management medicines grows, the battle for market leadership will likely accelerate innovation, benefit patients, and alter the pharmaceutical landscape.

The ongoing rivalry signals that while Lilly may have outpaced Novo in recent sales and market share gains, the ultimate winner will be determined by sustained innovation, regulatory approvals, and long-term patient outcomes.