What Risks Could Derail XRP’s Bullish Momentum?

XRP has been consolidating for nearly 200 days between $1.90 and $2.90, with its current price at $2.13, per a June 18, 2025, Cointelegraph report. Despite bullish fractals from 2017 suggesting a rally to $3.70-$10, an inverse cup-and-handle pattern threatens a drop to $1.33, as noted in a 2025 TradingView analysis. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.74, per a 2025 CoinDCX report, signals mild oversold conditions but lacks momentum for a reversal, while low trading volume reflects cautious sentiment.

A breakdown below the 200-day EMA at $2.0938 could accelerate selling pressure, exposing XRP to $1.85-$1.70, per a 2025 CoinDCX analysis. Traders must watch the resistance between $2.25 and $2.27 to gauge near-term risks.

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What Technical Patterns Signal Danger?

The inverse cup-and-handle pattern, identified in a 2025 Cointelegraph report, formed after XRP peaked at $2.90 in March 2025, followed by a gradual decline and consolidation. A confirmed breakdown below $2.07 could target $1.33, aligning with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, per a 2025 TradingView chart.

Furthermore, a breakdown of a descending triangle in June 2025 indicates that prices might drop to $1.25, and data shows that long-term holders are in the “denial” phase, which often happens before market peaks.

These bearish setups highlight significant downside risks, especially given XRP’s failure to break above short-term EMAs at $2.22-$2.25, per a 2025 CoinDCX report.

How Could Regulatory Uncertainty Impact XRP?

Despite the SEC lawsuit resolution in March 2025, reducing a $125 million penalty to $50 million, per a 2025 Finance Magnates report, regulatory risks persist. A 2025 Bitpanda Academy article notes potential delays in XRP ETF approvals could dampen institutional interest.

The SEC’s ongoing appeal, cited in a 2025 Forbes India report, creates lingering uncertainty, potentially capping price gains. Global trade tensions, including 50 percent EU tariffs, per a 2025 Finance Magnates report, further cloud XRP’s adoption in cross-border payments.

These factors could undermine Ripple’s partnerships with banks, limiting XRP’s utility and demand, per a 2025 Brave New Coin analysis.

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Bearish Sentiment Threatens Price Stability

Market sentiment leans bearish, with 17 of 29 technical indicators signaling downside risks, per a June 17, 2025, CoinCodex report. Wallet Investor predicts a drop to $1.35 by year-end, while Peter Brandt’s analysis, cited in a 2025 CCN report, warns of a 50 percent market cap decline to $1.07 if support at $1.90 fails.

Negative funding rates and heavy shorting, per a 2025 Crypto Basic report, suggest a potential short squeeze, but without volume spikes, bearish pressure prevails.

XRP’s 3.7 percent volatility over 30 days, per a 2025 Changelly report, underscores a lack of bullish conviction, increasing correction risks.

Did you know?
XRP’s 2017 rally, peaking at $3.40, was driven by a 1,267-day consolidation, similar to its current 2,470-day cycle, per a 2025 Cointelegraph report.

Macroeconomic Pressures Intensify Risks

Global economic headwinds, including US-China trade tensions and a strong US dollar, per a 2025 FX Empire report, weigh on crypto markets. XRP’s realized price at $1.06, per a 2025 Cointelegraph report, signals a potential reset if sentiment sours further.

A 2025 Finance Magnates report notes XRP’s 20 percent drop in December 2024 amid a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, suggesting macro factors could drive it to a six-month low of $1.40, as predicted by analyst Ak47.

These pressures threaten XRP’s ability to sustain its current range, along with declining retail interest, according to a 2025 Brave New Coin report.

What Lies Ahead for XRP’s Price Trajectory?

XRP’s 200-day consolidation at $2.13 holds promise for a bullish breakout, but bearish patterns like the inverse cup-and-handle and descending triangle signal risks of a drop to $1.33 or lower. Regulatory uncertainty, bearish sentiment, and macroeconomic pressures amplify downside threats, despite Ripple’s partnerships and ETF hopes. Traders must monitor key levels at $2.25 and $2.09 to navigate volatility. Will XRP defy the bears, or will risks derail its momentum?